Entry Model Specs, Premium Model Price?

[MaddMatt]

yeah, thats right wrt Rivian. they set a price point in 2018/2019 and Covid hit and their supply chain went out the door. with that went their costs. they had to jack up the price but customers revolted and they rolled it back for early reservation holders. they sold every vehicle at a loss due to that as well as because they were ramping up production so lots of cap ex. they are still trying to make a profit per vehicle sold. costs are moving down with each quarter but its been a struggle and i feel bad for them with such unlucky timing.

with Scout, not sure if 2027 is going to be a good time to launch or not. depends on how the next 2 years goes with the new administration in DC. costs could shoot up for them, screwing up their stated start price below $60k. costs could remain flat and they hit that price. or something in between and they get creative and still hit that price while having to produce a different version than they wanted. just lots of unknowns.

I feel like the same process happened with Grenadier - I was an early reservation holder (as I am with Scout, I reserved one of each and will decide when the time is right). My early Grenadier was expected to be about $60k, but when you could finally spec them out, one the way I wanted was $106k.

If they had a Harvester type option I may have tried to make that work, but I don't intend to go back to relying purely on ICE transportation. So I cancelled my Grenadier reservation and then they announced that they were holding price on early reservation, like Rivian did - but with all my wanted options it was still too much - my Xterra has about 75% of the capabilities of the Grenadier and it's paid for. I made a spreadsheet, cuz I'm a geek, so I'm pretty confident in that 75% number, and now way I can take on $100k of debt for something I don't actually "need".

I fully expect either the Terra or Traveler, optioned the way I will want, to be pushing $100k, but I have at least 2 years to plan. If I was smart I would start putting a car payment aside each month to both get used to the budget and build a downpayment nest egg, but I'm guessing I won't.

Its always better for any kind of product company to sell less of something at a higher price than more of something at a lower price, so I don't expect the launch editions to be anywhere close to $60k - $85 to $90k feels more realistic, but if they are anywhere close to $60k I"ll be very happy - like I said we've got two years to plan...

 

[Callsign_DISCO]

The stated 12-18 months until we get some real sense of trim levels and pricing is going to feel looooooong, lol.

 

[LastDayScout]

The stated 12-18 months until we get some real sense of trim levels and pricing is going to feel looooooong, lol.

The last two years have flown by. I am not wishing my life away, but I can't wait to start configuring with prices!

 

[R1TVT]

yeah, thats right wrt Rivian. they set a price point in 2018/2019 and Covid hit and their supply chain went out the door. with that went their costs. they had to jack up the price but customers revolted and they rolled it back for early reservation holders. they sold every vehicle at a loss due to that as well as because they were ramping up production so lots of cap ex. they are still trying to make a profit per vehicle sold. costs are moving down with each quarter but its been a struggle and i feel bad for them with such unlucky timing.

with Scout, not sure if 2027 is going to be a good time to launch or not. depends on how the next 2 years goes with the new administration in DC. costs could shoot up for them, screwing up their stated start price below $60k. costs could remain flat and they hit that price. or something in between and they get creative and still hit that price while having to produce a different version than they wanted. just lots of unknowns.

Yes, this is essentially what happened with Rivian, but the initial launch vehicles were very intentionally optioned and trimmed out with a higher than normal spec (there was no real "base model" option). Everyone went into converting their launch edition reservations intentionally and knowing what the configurator was kicking out in terms of price. Rivian did get screwed by the supply chain issues that came with COVID (in terms of launch timing) and did make an attempt to change pricing, but they stood to loose faith and trust more than anything, so they honored initial pricing. It was a smart move, even with more losses per vehicle (at least in my mind) bc they were starting a new company, their own corporate reputation was at risk, and they also had confidence in their long term planning to know that they could eventually dig out of the hole. They might start to see profitability happen the launch of R2 and R3, and even with the new gen2 R1's.

 

[CarTechGeek]

Yes, this is essentially what happened with Rivian, but the initial launch vehicles were very intentionally optioned and trimmed out with a higher than normal spec (there was no real "base model" option). Everyone went into converting their launch edition reservations intentionally and knowing what the configurator was kicking out in terms of price.

That is pretty much the norm now. If you want one early, you have to buy a more expensive high trim/option package.

If you want a base trim, be prepared to wait.

 

[Mousehunter]

Lots of economics involved. Tesla Cybertruck is currently limited to production capacity rather than demand. Last I read that was limited to battery production. They had planned on using a dry process battery, and after years of trying to get it to work, they recently retooled. Rivian is currently producing +/- 50k vehicles a year, with a published capacity of 150-200k (plus I think they are building a new plant to up that capacity - optimistic I guess). Scout is also planning a 200k/year production capacity.

I guess a lot will depend on how they want to play it out. Sure, initial production will probably be higher trim - but the real question is how many initial customers will be willing to upgrade to take delivery quicker. If many will, then perhaps it is more profitable to hold out producing base models for a while to fully exploit the part of the market that will bare it. That said, the next real question is marginal costs increases due to ramping up production vs needing to deal with the fixed costs of the facility. Generally a facility is more profitable at capacity - but not necessarily always. IF they can keep the lights on with limited, but higher margin production - it will give them time to grow out their sales and service network. Fewer, higher profile vehicles will probably result in less disenfranchised customers while their service network deals with growing pains.