I think you've nailed it. For EV owners we won't even consider a vehicle with a combustion engine so the only cross shop for us will be the Jeep Recon and maybe the electric Bronco if it ever comes to exist. For most people though I think they're more looking for capabilities so will cross shop against hybrids and even similar combustion vehicles like the current Bronco and Wrangler. A lot of it will have to do with how well they market the capabilities of the Scout, give it cool EV-only features and highlight those capabilities that no combustion vehicle can do.
I'm not too concerned about the market for Scout though, I think they'll be able to sell every single one they make for quite a few years, assuming the price is right. If it's yet-another $100k EV then they might have some issues filling demand. If it's in the Jeep/Bronco price ballpark though then they'll sell whatever they can build.
The thing about EVs is that the best salespeople are the individual owners. It's when the neighbour comes over and asks you questions about your EV and you show them how easy it is to charge and how much better it is than a combustion car. It's the friend you give a ride to who experiences the instant, silent acceleration. It's the family member you help out at the cottage by using your vehicle as a silent power station to run a table saw in the back forty. That's what will get more buyers and the more owners out there, the more people will want them. I'm not worried about demand. The owners will create more owners in the first several years. I'm more worried that I'll have to wait a few years to actually get my hands on one after it launches because I live north of the 49th parallel.
If Scout loses some ICE buyers to the hybrid competition in the early days that will be okay too. Hybrids are the gateway. People think they want the security and familiarity of a combustion engine so they buy a hybrid. But then they experience some of that EV goodness which inevitability won't be long enough because of a hybrid's limited range, so it'll always leave them wanting more. Soon they'll come to resent the times the gas engine kicks in, and having to service the expensive gas engine all the time, and buy expensive fuel and oil for it. They'll wish they could do more electric driving because its cheaper and more pleasant. They'll start to see the gas part of the vehicle as an expensive, obnoxious hassle and you can bet that their next vehicle will be a full EV.
I say this because that's exactly the path I took to EV and it's what I've heard from so many other EV owners I know. I had a hybrid for three years and traded it in for a full EV so I didn't have to deal with the nuisance of owning a combustion engine.
In the land of rugged off-roaders only Scout and Jeep will be players for several years, possibly Rivian with the R2 but that's less of a rugged vehicle in my eyes. Scout could own the bigger half of the market if they play their cards right, they just need to make sure they price the vehicles right to get the bigger slice of that pie and that those vehicles are better than whatever EVs Jeep or Ford manage to produce.
I think Scout has a good shot at this. They have no legacy infrastructure to protect and their management is all pulling in the same direction - no combustion luddites holding them back. They don't have to worry about downplaying their EVs to make their existing combustion vehicles not look too obsolete. They can clean sheet a vehicle and optimize it for exactly what they want it to do without worrying about legacy parts, tooling, and other baggage. I expect it will be a very compelling product when it's (hopefully soon?) revealed.
