How will the new administration impact Scout and the EV market?

[Rampy]

There are incentives (in various forms) for a number of industries and I suggest that all or nothing business incentives ideas are unlikely because there are too many ever changing economic pressures. Not to mention the throngs of business lobbyists pulling the strings to obtain a handout.

If the ev companies receive incentives, then as a consumer I would like to have the opportunity to receive an ev tax credit as an incentive to purchase a Scout Motors product. How do we lobby for our handouts??

And who do you think issues the carbon credits that the ev industry sells for carbon credit revenue?

Tesla’s $739 Million Carbon Credit Revenue Fuels Q3 Earnings Surge

Tesla's $739 Million Carbon Credit Revenue Fuels Q3 Earnings Surge

Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings report surprised investors with a $739 million boost from carbon credit sales, driving an 8% profit growth.

carboncredits.com

Carbon credits need to stop, they are a scam but that’s another topic

 

[MountainDad]

Removing incentives won't create a buyers market.

It will create a market that is more worse for both buyers and sellers, leaving higher prices and lowers sales.

Germany pulled EV incentives at the end of last year. It resulted in a large drop EV sales this year when prices increased.

Incentives when designed appropriately can help spur adoption - tax incentives influence demand side, regulation influences supply side. Incentives can help allow for earlier adoption when manufacturing expenses and scaling haven't quite turned the corner for the tech to be profitable.

However, demand-side / consumer incentives can't go on forever. At some point, the tech, or the individual product, has to stand or fall on its own, so they should sunset, and the free market forces should dictate its success from then on.

At what point that should be for EVs can be debated, but where I live, for a very red part of Colorado that went 60%+ for Trump every time he has run, there sure are a lot of EVs driving around.

 

[LastDayScout]

If Scout builds something desirable and prices it correctly, they will be successful with or without credits. I would imagine that Scout’s financial staff is smarter than to price point their product based on an incentive that can easily go away.

 

[CarTechGeek]

If Scout builds something desirable and prices it correctly, they will be successful with or without credits. I would imagine that Scout’s financial staff is smarter than to price point their product based on an incentive that can easily go away.

They can't just drop the price to make it sell. They have to price it where they can make a profit.

The removal of the credit makes a big difference in how attractive that price will look.

Ford is having a very hard time, losing money on the Lightning at a similar price point with the existence of the credit.

Without that credit I'm thinking volume is going to be that much more difficult to achieve.

 

[J Alynn]

They can't just drop the price to make it sell. They have to price it where they can make a profit.

The removal of the credit makes a big difference in how attractive that price will look.

Ford is having a very hard time, losing money on the Lightning at a similar price point with the existence of the credit.

Without that credit I'm thinking volume is going to be that much more difficult to achieve.

I agree on this point. SM announced the prices at reveal with caveat that was before tax credits-which yes, can go away but even they realized the credit is valuable. I would argue the credit is valuable to increase affordability to folks due to early technology. There are obviously buyers who want a Scout for a Scout and could care less what kind of fuel . Record heat and wild fires can’t be ignored and climate change is a problem whether people want to admit it. The change needs to happen with or without opposition or lack of understanding. The credits help promote something good and as you said-you can’t just discount and not make money or SM will close their doors WAY faster than they open them
People forget that engineering and design cost money and tech for 2028 needs to start today if not already no matter the industry. If EV sales drop then battery tech slows down, plants close and more time is lost in advancement while job loss grows. Technology can’t ever be just cut off at the knees. It needs to ebb and flow but killing tech is never a good idea

 

[Rampy]

I agree on this point. SM announced the prices at reveal with caveat that was before tax credits-which yes, can go away but even they realized the credit is valuable. I would argue the credit is valuable to increase affordability to folks due to early technology. There are obviously buyers who want a Scout for a Scout and could care less what kind of fuel . Record heat and wild fires can’t be ignored and climate change is a problem whether people want to admit it. The change needs to happen with or without opposition or lack of understanding. The credits help promote something good and as you said-you can’t just discount and not make money or SM will close their doors WAY faster than they open them
People forget that engineering and design cost money and tech for 2028 needs to start today if not already no matter the industry. If EV sales drop then battery tech slows down, plants close and more time is lost in advancement while job loss grows. Technology can’t ever be just cut off at the knees. It needs to ebb and flow but killing tech is never a good idea

Yep, I want a scout cuz it’s a scout & a harvester

Using the ABRP app on our 350 mile trip and the extended range lightning stopping to charge added almost 60 min & then no “quality” fast chargers at our destination

As a former red card wildland firefighter, it’s not climate change but mis management of the urban wildland interface

Not having record heat or record cooling either

Credits prop up a product that can not stand on its own, build a quality product at a reasonable price and people will buy it

Look at SpaceX & how advanced it is, Starlink, Starshield, IFT 6 launches Tuesday & how musk had to rescue Boeing/NASA

Private Sector without government subsidies is the way to go …..

 

[J Alynn]

Yep, I want a scout cuz it’s a scout & a harvester

Using the ABRP app on our 350 mile trip and the extended range lightning stopping to charge added almost 60 min & then no “quality” fast chargers at our destination

As a former red card wildland firefighter, it’s not climate change but mis management of the urban wildland interface

Not having record heat or record cooling either

Credits prop up a product that can not stand on its own, build a quality product at a reasonable price and people will buy it

Look at SpaceX & how advanced it is, Starlink, Starshield, IFT 6 launches Tuesday & how musk had to rescue Boeing/NASA

Private Sector without government subsidies is the way to go …..

kinda hard to build a quality product on new tech that has a higher cost.

Speaking of quality I seem to recall multiple Musk rockets have blown up. Their poor quality along with questionable vehicle quality(roofs flying off, CT rusting on surface to name a few) along with the ability to expand were propped up with tax credits for years. But I guess we forget about those experiences. What a web they weave

The northeast has had nearly no rainfall for weeks upon weeks but surely not climate issue based.

Water use bans all over PA but probably a fluke.

Believe what you want. Im just killing time or wouldn’t even respond as you’ve proven where you stand time and time again. Good night to you sir!

 

[LastDayScout]

They can't just drop the price to make it sell. They have to price it where they can make a profit.

The removal of the credit makes a big difference in how attractive that price will look.

Ford is having a very hard time, losing money on the Lightning at a similar price point with the existence of the credit.

Without that credit I'm thinking volume is going to be that much more difficult to achieve.

Scott Keogh said they will be profitable in the first vehicle. I know CEOs say a lot of things. But, we shall see.

 

[LastDayScout]

I agree on this point. SM announced the prices at reveal with caveat that was before tax credits-which yes, can go away but even they realized the credit is valuable. I would argue the credit is valuable to increase affordability to folks due to early technology. There are obviously buyers who want a Scout for a Scout and could care less what kind of fuel . Record heat and wild fires can’t be ignored and climate change is a problem whether people want to admit it. The change needs to happen with or without opposition or lack of understanding. The credits help promote something good and as you said-you can’t just discount and not make money or SM will close their doors WAY faster than they open them
People forget that engineering and design cost money and tech for 2028 needs to start today if not already no matter the industry. If EV sales drop then battery tech slows down, plants close and more time is lost in advancement while job loss grows. Technology can’t ever be just cut off at the knees. It needs to ebb and flow but killing tech is never a good idea

We had sunny day, saltwater flooding today in Charleston that caused some road closures. It’s real, just take a look. I’m sure the folks in Western North Carolina didn’t expect a hurricane either.

 

[Rampy]

We had sunny day, saltwater flooding today in Charleston that caused some road closures. It’s real, just take a look. I’m sure the folks in Western North Carolina didn’t expect a hurricane either.

Climate change is not real, no matter how much you tax people it does absolutely nothing except make people like John Kerry rich.

 

[Rampy]

kinda hard to build a quality product on new tech that has a higher cost.

Speaking of quality I seem to recall multiple Musk rockets have blown up. Their poor quality along with questionable vehicle quality(roofs flying off, CT rusting on surface to name a few) along with the ability to expand were propped up with tax credits for years. But I guess we forget about those experiences. What a web they weave

The northeast has had nearly no rainfall for weeks upon weeks but surely not climate issue based.

Water use bans all over PA but probably a fluke.

Believe what you want. Im just killing time or wouldn’t even respond as you’ve proven where you stand time and time again. Good night to you sir!

Yep, I’m unvaccinated and a constitutional conservative interested in a Scout EV on a forum with lots of people who believe otherwise and tend to hurt lots of feelings

 

[Rampy]

kinda hard to build a quality product on new tech that has a higher cost.

Speaking of quality I seem to recall multiple Musk rockets have blown up. Their poor quality along with questionable vehicle quality(roofs flying off, CT rusting on surface to name a few) along with the ability to expand were propped up with tax credits for years. But I guess we forget about those experiences. What a web they weave

The northeast has had nearly no rainfall for weeks upon weeks but surely not climate issue based.

Water use bans all over PA but probably a fluke.

Believe what you want. Im just killing time or wouldn’t even respond as you’ve proven where you stand time and time again. Good night to you sir!

I’m sorry, missed this, yep Space X has had lots of exploding rockets, but they learned from them, expected some and others not so much and are currently launching more rockets than anyone else in the world, launching lots of rockets & reusing the boosters from Vandenberg SFB and cape canaveral and without SpaceX Boeing would still have astronauts stranded in space. Oh and SpaceX is considered a critical defense contractor while crushing any competitor

Nobody can compete with Starlink and nobody can come close to the DoD’s investment in Starshield and now US Navy ships will be equipped with Starlink

Nobody in the world can launch a 22 story building into space and then safely catch it, that’s just mind boggling in itself

I don’t know enough about Tesla to know how much government funding they received for R&D and installing charging stations. It will be interesting to see how the Space X/ EV/Tesla community accepts Musk’s new position

Should we be good stewards of the world, absolutely

 

[LastDayScout]

We had sunny day, saltwater flooding today in Charleston that caused some road closures. It’s real, just take a look. I’m sure the folks in Western North Carolina didn’t expect a hurricane either.

Saltwater flooding and hurricanes are not funny.

 

[LastDayScout]

I’m sorry, missed this, yep Space X has had lots of exploding rockets, but they learned from them, expected some and others not so much and are currently launching more rockets than anyone else in the world, launching lots of rockets & reusing the boosters from Vandenberg SFB and cape canaveral and without SpaceX Boeing would still have astronauts stranded in space. Oh and SpaceX is considered a critical defense contractor while crushing any competitor

Nobody can compete with Starlink and nobody can come close to the DoD’s investment in Starshield and now US Navy ships will be equipped with Starlink

Nobody in the world can launch a 22 story building into space and then safely catch it, that’s just mind boggling in itself

I don’t know enough about Tesla to know how much government funding they received for R&D and installing charging stations. It will be interesting to see how the Space X/ EV/Tesla community accepts Musk’s new position

Should we be good stewards of the world, absolutely

The last sentence is very good and I have long said that’s the common ground approach that will get us all on the right track.

 

[Rampy]

Saltwater flooding and hurricanes are not funny.

Flooding is not funny & neither is hurricanes, but climate change is funny

While never experiencing a hurricane I’ve experienced upwards of 25-30 typhoons, some of them super typhoons and have a general idea what they are like. I’ve also experienced at least 75-100 tornadoes, from mild to wiping you off the face of the earth wild…..

Non of them are funny unless you’re laughing trying to cope…..dark humor and all

 

[MountainDad]

Ford is having a very hard time, losing money on the Lightning at a similar price point with the existence of the credit.

Without that credit I'm thinking volume is going to be that much more difficult to achieve.

Ford invested billions in their Lightning factory. They expected to lose money on the Lightning for a long time. Nothing that requires such massive capital investment is profitable on unit one - look at Tesla. They are now profitable, with their emissions credits representing about 10% of their net profit in 2023, whereas in years past that was the only thing keeping them net positive on revenue.

Ford as a company is still quite profitable overall - over $10B in 2023, and revenue went up 11% YOY in 2023 - because across the parking lot, the ICE F150 factory is still humming on two shifts (I recently toured it).

Do tax incentives help sell it? Yep, sure do. Pressure is on for them to turn the corner on unit economics a little sooner, probably.

 

[CarTechGeek]

Ford invested billions in their Lightning factory. They expected to lose money on the Lightning for a long time. Nothing that requires such massive capital investment is profitable on unit one - look at Tesla. They are now profitable, with their emissions credits representing about 10% of their net profit in 2023, whereas in years past that was the only thing keeping them net positive on revenue.

Amortizing R&D, and factory costs are separate from Unit Profit. So when Ford says they are losing money on each Lightning they sell, that is just the difference between what it costs to produce it, and what they sell it for before they even look at all the upfront costs.

Up the page: "Scott Keogh said they will be profitable in the first vehicle. "

Obviously that would NOT account for the billions of R&D and factory build out. It's just production cost vs sales price, but even then it seems kind of naïve. At the very least, if everything went right, you would need to get sufficient volume for some significant economies of scale to kick in.

 

[MountainDad]

Amortizing R&D, and factory costs are separate from Unit Profit. So when Ford says they are losing money on each Lightning they sell, that is just the difference between what it costs to produce it, and what they sell it for before they even look at all the upfront costs.

Up the page: "Scott Keogh said they will be profitable in the first vehicle. "

Obviously that would NOT account for the billions of R&D and factory build out. It's just production cost vs sales price, but even then it seems kind of naïve. At the very least, if everything went right, you would need to get sufficient volume for some significant economies of scale to kick in.

That's not quite how it works when you only have essentially one product.

Ford has many products, many lines of business, including its own finance arm.

Scout will have two products, with basically only the body style being the difference.

It's a bold statement but perhaps overly optimistic.

 

[chucchinchilla]

If Scout builds something desirable and prices it correctly, they will be successful with or without credits. I would imagine that Scout’s financial staff is smarter than to price point their product based on an incentive that can easily go away.

Excellent point. At the end of the day it really comes down to this. I'm not sure what the perfect ICE competitors are to Scout but for for some context here's a random assortment of SUV MSRPs...

Scout Traveler: $60K
Defender 110: $60K
Land Cruiser: $55K
Bronco OBX: $50K
Explorer Platinum: $55K
BMW X5: $65K

While it's not the best list in the world the point remains, when you compare the EV Traveler to other ICE SUVs, it's not that bad plus the fact you still have lower opex since it's electric. From that perspective I think the Scout will be able to hold it's own however losing $7,500 will price some customers out or force others to reduce their options spend. Again, that's not great but it's not end of the world.

 

[J Alynn]

Excellent point. At the end of the day it really comes down to this. I'm not sure what the perfect ICE competitors are to Scout but for for some context here's a random assortment of SUV MSRPs...

Scout Traveler: $60K
Defender 110: $60K
Land Cruiser: $55K
Bronco OBX: $50K
Explorer Platinum: $55K
BMW X5: $65K

While it's not the best list in the world the point remains, when you compare the EV Traveler to other ICE SUVs, it's not that bad plus the fact you still have lower opex since it's electric. From that perspective I think the Scout will be able to hold it's own however losing $7,500 will price some customers out or force others to reduce their options spend. Again, that's not great but it's not end of the world.

The loss of the tax credit no longer allows SM/VW to undercut their U.S. competitors which will/would have allowed them to claim a larger market share, allowed SM to grow faster and expand product offerings while helping mainstream a class of EV. But yes, at cost listed you are right that it falls in line with similar ICE competitors albeit on the higher price side of things.