How will the new administration impact Scout and the EV market?

[dleepnw]

Trump has been stating this for a while and its come up again in this article. Tariffs are likely as well. What do you think will be the impact to Scout? And the EV market as a whole?

I'm concerned about existing startups like Rivian and Lucid. I'm pretty sure Tesla stands to gain from all of this as well, which will kill competition even more.

 

[Logan]

I was talking about this with a friend today.

I agree, this likely doesn't bode well for most of the EV companies on the market. This is definitely going to squeeze companies like Rivian, and anyone else who is still actively losing lots of money per vehicle.

I'm curious how this will impact Hyundai/Kia/Genesis personally. They've done HUGE amounts of work to on-shore production capacity to qualify for the IRA tax credit (while their competitors mostly already qualified), and their Ioniq 5 is really selling quite well, even without the credit (although most are leased, because of the tax loophole). This huge infrastructure investment has been a huge boon to the American southwest region. And I can't imagine that those states will be wanting to harm that. I'm curious what comes of that.

Companies like GM I think are in a sort of weird place. They're saying they'll be making profit per vehicle quite soon, as they're scaling pretty fast. But I'd imaging that would change again once the tax credit is removed. But I'd imagine they're better off than Ford/Rivian in this respect.

Given that the Scouts will be coming in during the second half of the next administrations term, and that the "usual" method for a new vehicle release is to do the high end trims first (which were likely $80k or so???), it might not impact Scout "as much"?

 

[Jamie@ScoutMotors]

At this point, it remains to be seen. The automotive industry looks a good ten years into the future beyond any administration and has weathered more than 65 years of new requirements and inevitable changes that take place. This really isn't any different.

Also, a reminder for all to please leave politics for a different forum.

 

[dleepnw]

ack. gov't policy, regulations and such impact the auto industry so i think its a fair topic to discuss but if its not cool then i will cease and desist.

 

[J Alynn]

ack. gov't policy, regulations and such impact the auto industry so i think its a fair topic to discuss but if its not cool then i will cease and desist.

I struggle here because I like your topic but I’m sure one wrong post and this thread becomes a political sh*t storm
I think if we can all be mature and approach it “scientifically/financially” the politics should be able to remain neutral BUT it means EVERYONE has to be mature and approach it from a business point of view not a bipartisan I hate you because you hate me approach.
I’m always quick to kill politics on this forum but I think there is merit here.
@Jamie@ScoutMotors was your comment a warning or a cease/desist?

 

[dumbdork]

I think politics aside, the number one thing holding back EVs is battery tech. It's been expensive and not quite there yet. There's a number of sources suggesting battery prices halve in the next ~2yrs. Even if they drop 33%, I think EVs become notably more palatable.

Incoming administration wants to make gas cheaper. Thats fine. I see the next couple of decades as transformative from an energy perspective. For the first time in human history, you can make your own energy to power the vast majority of your life, and it's very cost effective to do so.

Oil still needs to be processed to turn into gasoline to put into my ICE. My solar panels need...nothing. They just sit there and generate power. To me, the fight between gas and electric is a race between writing things on paper vs wordprocessing. I see EV (and green energy in general) as technology. IMO, you'd be stupid to bet against technology moving forward. The tech is moving forward regardless of administration, notably because there's SO much money to be made with technical revolutions. Solar+battery (whether they're in cars or stationary) are a technical revolution to me.

 

[pwrofgrayskull]

I struggle here because I like your topic but I’m sure one wrong post and this thread becomes a political sh*t storm
I think if we can all be mature and approach it “scientifically/financially” the politics should be able to remain neutral BUT it means EVERYONE has to be mature and approach it from a business point of view not a bipartisan I hate you because you hate me approach.
I’m always quick to kill politics on this forum but I think there is merit here.
@Jamie@ScoutMotors was your comment a warning or a cease/desist?

Agreed. I see the merit as well, but like you pointed out everyone needs to be on board with being neutral or it’ll go downhill quick.

 

[Logan]

I struggle here because I like your topic but I’m sure one wrong post and this thread becomes a political sh*t storm
I think if we can all be mature and approach it “scientifically/financially” the politics should be able to remain neutral BUT it means EVERYONE has to be mature and approach it from a business point of view not a bipartisan I hate you because you hate me approach.
I’m always quick to kill politics on this forum but I think there is merit here.
@Jamie@ScoutMotors was your comment a warning or a cease/desist?

I fully support/endorse keeping Politics out of stuff.

 

[chucchinchilla]

It is highly likely the $7,500 EV tax credit will go away. If that happens you'll see a lot of customers who wanted a base Scout drop out and buy something cheaper or perhaps lower their overall spec to keep it on budget. On the other end you'll have wealthy customers wanting loaded cars who won't be impacted.

For the greater car market the real damage will be with the lower end EVs where customers are more price sensitive. With all the current headwinds out there (oversupply, slowing sales, epic depreciation) I think it's going to be a bloodbath.

The losers here will be auto manufacturers who now have to figure out how to adjust pricing to minimize shock, rethink domestic manufacturing since the major incentive to do so is disappearing, and also consider risks from impending tariffs. Hats off to the supply chain folks out there who have a hell of a task ahead of them.

The winners will be Tesla who are pulling the ladder up behind themselves, the O&G industry, and manufacturers who import foreign-made EVs since eliminating the tax credit levels the playing field.

IMO this is an excellent topic of discussion. Everybody interested in buying a Scout...presumably everyone here lol...will be impacted by this decision so it would be silly to pretend it's not happening. The good news is nothing has happened yet AND Scout launching is still many years away, however it's definitely going to be a bumpy ride between now and then.

 

[CarTechGeek]

For the greater car market the real damage will be with the lower end EVs where customers are more price sensitive. With all the current headwinds out there (oversupply, slowing sales, epic depreciation) I think it's going to be a bloodbath....and eventually a buyers market.

Removing incentives won't create a buyers market.

It will create a market that is more worse for both buyers and sellers, leaving higher prices and lowers sales.

Germany pulled EV incentives at the end of last year. It resulted in a large drop EV sales this year when prices increased.

 

[chucchinchilla]

Removing incentives won't create a buyers market.

It will create a market that is more worse for both buyers and sellers, leaving higher prices and lowers sales.

Germany pulled EV incentives at the end of last year. It resulted in a large drop EV sales this year when prices increased.

Yeah I agree.

 

[GreenHarverster304]

At this point, it remains to be seen. The automotive industry looks a good ten years into the future beyond any administration and has weathered more than 65 years of new requirements and inevitable changes that take place. This really isn't any different.

Also, a reminder for all to please leave politics for a different forum.

Count me in the"keep politics out of most things" camp. However, future policy will be important as these new vehicles get closer to market. The current incentives even figured prominently in the Scout Motors reveal event presentation and the price point target. Beyond incentives, we have to consider federal commitment to expanding the charging infrastructure, manufacturing incentives and tax breaks, potential tariffs on parts from Germany, China etc.. that will go into the vehicle, and potential labor law changes that will be important for the good folks assembling these vehicles.

Many of the individuals in this forum are like me and taking their first plunge into the EV world, and will naturally want to discuss these issues. So far I am impressed at the level-headed and thoughtful discussion from everyone, and as long as we can try our best to keep policy and politics separate I look forward to these conversations and learning from the well informed people on here.

 

[TimmyHil08]

Removing incentives won't create a buyers market.

It will create a market that is more worse for both buyers and sellers, leaving higher prices and lowers sales.

Germany pulled EV incentives at the end of last year. It resulted in a large drop EV sales this year when prices increased.

I’m here to disagree, EV sales equaled out. It had nothing to do with the incentive's, Germans don’t want EV’s they love gas. And the past month the latest report says they had sales that have been up and down but mainly equaling out. Had nothing to do with incentives!


Also the USA tax credit only is an available for certain people so the best thing is to remove it. For equal playing field for everyone.

 

[J Alynn]

I’m here to disagree, EV sales equaled out. It had nothing to do with the incentive's, Germans don’t want EV’s they love gas. And the past month the latest report says they had sales that have been up and down but mainly equaling out. Had nothing to do with incentives!


Also the USA tax credit only is an available for certain people so the best thing is to remove it. For equal playing field for everyone.

I agree with some of this but would debate that credit is only for some. Tax foundation statistics show that 95% of tax payers in 2021 had adjusted gross income of $252,000 or less. So looking at a combined married couple being $300K I’d say that credit positively affects a very large majority of buyers here on the forum.
I will say the $7500 credit is/WAS a big factor in how much Scout I could manage.
Now I’m gonna have to sell my plasma and my body on the weekends for the next two years to make up the difference . I really don’t want to give up a kidney but I guess we’ll see where things are in 20 months!

 

[Scoutsie]

I am not deliberately trying to throw a grenade here. I promise. I’m asking for clarification.

It’s probably wisest to stay out of this discussion altogether, but looking at the facts, a billionaire campaign donor has asked the president-elect to roll back an EV incentive that, in said billionaire’s own words, will eliminate competition for his EV company. Tesla holds 48% of the US market share for EVs…which, to be fair, is down quite a bit from a record high of 82.5% in 2019: for perspective, GM is in 2nd place with 9.3% of the market share.
Since nobody else in the news media is wondering if this is a violation of the FTC Act or the Sherman Act, I’m guessing that what’s proposed is not illegal or unethical in the eyes of the law. Maybe someone with a better understanding of the law can enlighten me?

Thank you for your patience.

 

[TimmyHil08]

I am not deliberately trying to throw a grenade here. I promise. I’m asking for clarification.

It’s probably wisest to stay out of this discussion altogether, but looking at the facts, a billionaire campaign donor has asked the president-elect to roll back an EV incentive that, in said billionaire’s own words, will eliminate competition for his EV company. Tesla holds 48% of the US market share for EVs…which, to be fair, is down quite a bit from a record high of 82.5% in 2019: for perspective, GM is in 2nd place with 9.3% of the market share.
Since nobody else in the news media is wondering if this is a violation of the FTC Act or the Sherman Act, I’m guessing that what’s proposed is not illegal or unethical in the eyes of the law. Maybe someone with a better understanding of the law can enlighten me?

Thank you for your patience.

I totally agree, im a Elon fan. But when the house has to vote on it and if it passes it goes to the senate, im sure they will look into all the details before saying lets continue to be right up Elon's A$$ to make his EVs rule the world.

 

[chucchinchilla]

Also the USA tax credit only is an available for certain people so the best thing is to remove it. For equal playing field for everyone.

That's only if you buy, those income limits don't apply if you lease and 80% of EV's sold in this country are leased. For those who hate leasing, one could simply lease the car, get the credit, then buy it out after 1 month.

 

[eddiet1212]

There are incentives (in various forms) for a number of industries and I suggest that all or nothing business incentives ideas are unlikely because there are too many ever changing economic pressures. Not to mention the throngs of business lobbyists pulling the strings to obtain a handout.

If the ev companies receive incentives, then as a consumer I would like to have the opportunity to receive an ev tax credit as an incentive to purchase a Scout Motors product. How do we lobby for our handouts??

And who do you think issues the carbon credits that the ev industry sells for carbon credit revenue?

Tesla’s $739 Million Carbon Credit Revenue Fuels Q3 Earnings Surge

Tesla's $739 Million Carbon Credit Revenue Fuels Q3 Earnings Surge

Tesla's Q3 2024 earnings report surprised investors with a $739 million boost from carbon credit sales, driving an 8% profit growth.

carboncredits.com

 

[Rampy]

Removing incentives won't create a buyers market.

It will create a market that is more worse for both buyers and sellers, leaving higher prices and lowers sales.

Germany pulled EV incentives at the end of last year. It resulted in a large drop EV sales this year when prices increased.

I disagree, Germany is an entirely different country with a different economy & you can not compare Germany to America as equals

Incentives need to go away, taxpayers do not need to subsidize car purchases of any kind

 

[Rampy]

I agree with some of this but would debate that credit is only for some. Tax foundation statistics show that 95% of tax payers in 2021 had adjusted gross income of $252,000 or less. So looking at a combined married couple being $300K I’d say that credit positively affects a very large majority of buyers here on the forum.
I will say the $7500 credit is/WAS a big factor in how much Scout I could manage.
Now I’m gonna have to sell my plasma and my body on the weekends for the next two years to make up the difference . I really don’t want to give up a kidney but I guess we’ll see where things are in 20 months!

I’d love to have an adjusted gross income of $200k, woza, that would be insane vs having to live on a budget planning large purchases in advance & we even drove about 500 miles to get the wife’s new whip and the best trade in price for her Charger SRT

Without going down the political rabbit hole, government spending is out of control and needs to be really cutback

EV’s need to stand on their own, no government money of any kind for any reason, same thing for all fossil fuel vehicles