Battery tech

[CarTechGeek]

VW, throuh PowerCo plans to mass produce solid state batteries. I am sure that initially they will be more expensive, but the tremendous advantages outweigh the higher cost. I will not buy the Scout I have reserved unless it has a solid-state battery, even if it costs more.

They have a license to commercialize and produce Quantumscape SS batteries, but here are the latest specs on their samples:

A First Look at the QSE-5 B Sample

QuantumScape’s planned first commercial product, QSE-5, is a ~5 amp-hour cell designed to meet the requirements of automotive applications. Here, we’ll walk through the various elements of the cell specifications and explain some of the complexities behind the seemingly simple metric of energy...

www.quantumscape.com

The most important spec is:

"gravimetric energy density (also called specific energy) of 301 Wh/kg."

NMC (most popular) cells have energy density of about 270 Wh/kg. So these revolutionary SS batteries give about 11% improvement. Hardly world changing, and not commercialized, and there is no firm date on that.

As before with all of the hundred+ announcements: Wake me when someone has competitively priced, commercially produced cell.

 

[ID_ENG]

It's a contract for more development. Also it really isn't a battery, but a material High Silicon anode material that work for any battery using Graphite Anodes.

Multiple companies are trying to make this work:

Silicon could make car batteries better—for a price

cen.acs.org

While the military might think 20% more capacity for 100% more cost is a reasonable tradeoff for soldiers in the field, it's unlikely car makers or consumers will.

Also take the "made in the USA" with a grain of salt. This is just adding one US made material to all the same ones we are dependent on, like Nickel, Lithium and Cobalt which you still need in the same amounts. It just replaces some of the graphite with higher cost silicon oxide material.

It's like any of the hundred plus other battery developments. Get excited when they have cost competitive commercial cells, not during the hype filled, finance gobbling development stages.

Valid points. Don't think it's any where near commercially viable. Just that if the military is investing in it, it may bring the costs down in shorter order than without their push.

I forget the name of the company in the video but they have factories in the states and building more. Granted that there are materials we need to import.

There is a large cobalt mine that's started production in Idaho. To ease over seas reliance.

 

[pleasant tree]

Valid points. Don't think it's any where near commercially viable. Just that if the military is investing in it, it may bring the costs down in shorter order than without their push.

I forget the name of the company in the video but they have factories in the states and building more. Granted that there are materials we need to import.

There is a large cobalt mine that's started production in Idaho. To ease over seas relian

They have a license to commercialize and produce Quantumscape SS batteries, but here are the latest specs on their samples:

A First Look at the QSE-5 B Sample

QuantumScape’s planned first commercial product, QSE-5, is a ~5 amp-hour cell designed to meet the requirements of automotive applications. Here, we’ll walk through the various elements of the cell specifications and explain some of the complexities behind the seemingly simple metric of energy...

www.quantumscape.com

The most important spec is:

"gravimetric energy density (also called specific energy) of 301 Wh/kg."

NMC (most popular) cells have energy density of about 270 Wh/kg. So these revolutionary SS batteries give about 11% improvement. Hardly world changing, and not commercialized, and there is no firm date on that.

As before with all of the hundred+ announcements: Wake me when someone has competitively priced, commercially produced cell.

Ok, time to wake up, PowerCo is currently working on a schedule to release solid-state batteries by the end of 2025. Before Scout will need batteries. Scout needs to make their orders now.

 

[CarTechGeek]

Ok, time to wake up, PowerCo is currently working on a schedule to release solid-state batteries by the end of 2025. Before Scout will need batteries. Scout needs to make their orders now.

That seems VERY dubious. They are still in prototype stage having released B-cell prototype samples.

Plus the big PowerCo battery plant in North America, isn't coming online until at least 2027 at the soonest.

You can't risk your product on some new technology not yet in production. There is an unmapped road ahead from prototypes to production:

Solid-State Batteries Could Face “Production Hell”

Solid-State EV Batteries Now Face “Production Hell”

Solid-electrolyte EV batteries present big promises, bigger hurdles

spectrum.ieee.org

I haven’t seen cost numbers that are even close to competing with liquid-state, lithium-ion batteries.” Solid-state costs, he said, are about where conventional lithium-ion batteries were a decade ago.

Automakers also still need to verify the “performance rule” in three key areas–performance at temperature, performance at altitude, and performance under shock and vibration. Of those, Galyen said, shock and vibration are particularly concerning. “What happens when you’re driving down I-75 and you hit a big pit in the road?” he said. “What kind of damage would be done to the solid-state matrix?”

Automakers will not move to broad adoption until they are able to verify the new technology’s abilities in all those key areas, Galyen added. “None of these batteries have been validated yet,” he said. “So how do you plan on putting something into automotive production when it hasn’t been validated?”

His estimate:

Validation will take time, while automakers test factory-built cells in real-world conditions. To do that, manufacturers will first need to build battery factories, which could take two years, and then run a half-year of prototype products and distribute them to customers, who put them through their duty cycles. “Then you put the products into production and find out what your ‘gotchas’ are,” Galyen said of the inevitable problems.

To do the build-out, production, and validation could easily take seven or more years, Galyen said.

Bottom line is there are still too many unknowns ahead for new types of batteries, to count on volume shipments.

No one should be planning an EV based on Cells not already in production. You can hope they are ready and add them later when it makes sense, but these trucks should be planned around conventional cells.

 

[pleasant tree]

That seems VERY dubious. They are still in prototype stage having released B-cell prototype samples.

Plus the big PowerCo battery plant in North America, isn't coming online until at least 2027 at the soonest.

You can't risk your product on some new technology not yet in production. There is an unmapped road ahead from prototypes to production:

Solid-State Batteries Could Face “Production Hell”

Solid-State EV Batteries Now Face “Production Hell”

Solid-electrolyte EV batteries present big promises, bigger hurdles

spectrum.ieee.org

His estimate:



Bottom line is there are still too many unknowns ahead for new types of batteries, to count on volume shipments.

No one should be planning an EV based on Cells not already in production. You can hope they are ready and add them later when it makes sense, but these trucks should be planned around conventional cells.

Scouts are not yet in production either. So the plan is that we get yesterday's technology rather than plan to allow for fast breaking technology that by the time of scouts production will have been thoroughly tested and validated?

 

[Mousehunter]

There are some currently limited production techs that might mainstream before the Scout goes into production. The real problem is IF they are significantly better than existing mainstream tech, they will most likely sell initial mainstream production at a significant premium. VW probably has partnerships with some of this tech - but most likely it will appear in Porsche and Audi before it trickles into lower price point vehicles.

I guess the sad truth is now much extra would we be willing to pay for a non-game changing tech advance. 10k, 20k, ?

 

[CarTechGeek]

Scouts are not yet in production either. So the plan is that we get yesterday's technology rather than plan to allow for fast breaking technology that by the time of scouts production will have been thoroughly tested and validated?

You have to build and plan with existing technology. You can't just count on unproven technology, and then delay the start of the whole company when it doesn't.

The will almost certain be building with conventional cell. I'd be that PowerCo factory production slated for 2027 is also conventional cells. Solid state will likely only be mainstream a couple of years after Scout debut.

 

[TimmyHil08]

Sodium Ion is promising future technology. Safer, with good degradation specs and easier recycling. Energy density isn't as good as the current lithium technologies, but all of them are evolving quickly.

That’s what I’m hoping goes into the scout is Sodium ion.

 

[Chris27]

Interesting video linking VW group (affiliated with Scout) and Quantumscape batteries. The bit about fast charging is a bit disappointing but there are many upsides. At the end of the day, the biggest factors are battery degradation, cold weather performance drop and charge time along with the obvious energy density. Oh, and not to mention safety in crashes and thermal runaway when a high voltage bomb is charging in your garage every night.

Side note, I wish home wifi camera companies would employ thermal vision and trigger points so rate of rise or high heat could be detected to help alert of an issue. Not that it would save property but lives and peace of mind.

The future is exciting on all EV fronts but also fast moving and hard to be patient. At least we have the promise of the best looking EV’s for ‘real world’ drivers being engineered RIGHT NOW. Thank you for going against the grain, I don’t want to drive a pixelated ‘truck’ that looks like it jumped right out of a Super Nintendo game.

 

[ID_ENG]

There are some currently limited production techs that might mainstream before the Scout goes into production. The real problem is IF they are significantly better than existing mainstream tech, they will most likely sell initial mainstream production at a significant premium. VW probably has partnerships with some of this tech - but most likely it will appear in Porsche and Audi before it trickles into lower price point vehicles.

I guess the sad truth is now much extra would we be willing to pay for a non-game changing tech advance. 10k, 20k, ?

New and better doesn't always mean more expensive.

Take the advancements in solar panels for example. The emerging tech of perofskyte (I know I spelled that wrong, but typing in a rush).
The raw materials are cheaper, the manufacturing is less demanding (eg cheaper), and because it's more efficient you need less panels.

So all in all once they work out the durability issue, it should be cheaper r for the end user than current panels.

If we get a much more energy dense battery, that can use existing manufacturing plants, maybe even use less electricity expensive raw materials. Doesn't mean SM has to fill that space completely. Maybe base line they only use enough battery to get that same 350 mile range. If you want to pay extra and fill the space to get 500+ on BEV only, then you may ask is it worth the extra $20k? Maybe, maybe not.

I feel and this just a gut feeling by 2025, maybe mid 2026. There will be a commercially viable new battery tech. And I don't think it would be too out of the question for SM engineers to pivot. Especially if the form factor is similar.

One of my biggest hold ups on EVs is the volatile nature of Lithium Ion.

 

[CarTechGeek]

Interesting video linking VW group (affiliated with Scout) and Quantumscape batteries. The bit about fast charging is a bit disappointing but there are many upsides.

I had a good laugh when he started saying: "What if Tesla claimed it would SS batteries in its cars in 2020, then 2021, year after year making the same insane claim, they'd get their asses sued..."

Does he not realize that's exactly what Tesla has been claiming for "Full Self Driving", year after year? Musk started making outrageous claims about FSD just around the corner for almost a decade now. 2019 saying next year FSD could turn your Tesla into a FSD taxi to send out and make you money. That's more ridiculous than Toyota battery claims:

Here are Elon Musk’s wildest predictions about Tesla’s self-driving cars

‘It’s financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla’

www.theverge.com

• We will have more than one million robotaxis on the road,” Musk said. “A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software... everything.”
• These cars will be Level 5 autonomy with no geofence, which is a fancy way of saying they will be capable of driving themselves anywhere on the planet, under all possible conditions, with no limitations. There are no cars on the road today that are Level 5.
• Tesla robotaxis could generate owners up to $30,000 a year in profit, Musk predicted.

 

[dtothek]

To be honest, I don’t want to be the first buyer of any new tech (especially from Stellantis!). I’m more than willing to give up a little performance/range for reliability.

Agree with everything you said including FLY NAVY!

 

[MountainDad]

If you have to have a physically smaller battery to accommodate the Harvester generator, then at least consider these batteries:

https://insideevs.com/news/740256/rivian-r2-lges-battery-deal-4695-cells/

(Bonus: they're not made by a Chinese company)

 

[TimmyHil08]

If you have to have a physically smaller battery to accommodate the Harvester generator, then at least consider these batteries:

https://insideevs.com/news/740256/rivian-r2-lges-battery-deal-4695-cells/

(Bonus: they're not made by a Chinese company)

I like that no Chinese companies. Less of a tariff. But I would rather see an American company making the battery.

Like: https://www.nanograf.com/technology-1

 

[J Alynn]

I like the idea but knowing VWAG is into the battery business wouldn’t it make sense to use their own products if for nothing else a cost savings not to mention other benefits of being in control of product? Just my thinking.

 

[CarTechGeek]

If you have to have a physically smaller battery to accommodate the Harvester generator, then at least consider these batteries:

https://insideevs.com/news/740256/rivian-r2-lges-battery-deal-4695-cells/

(Bonus: they're not made by a Chinese company)

Why? Those are the largest cylindrical cells in existence.

VW subsidary PowerCo strategy is the "Unified Cell", which is a prismatic cell, so I would assume Scout will use Unified Cells from PowerCo.

https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/documents/cws/002/666/file_de/7b14d7e871958ad1376f92381ecfa93f0ad9a0dd/2024-03-06_Volkswagen_PowerCo_March_2024_vFinal.pdf?1709715372&disposition=attachment

The Unified part is that the have the same Prismatic Form Factor regardless of Chemistry. They mention three initial Chemistries. The point here is they don't have redesign a pack for a chemistry change, as they will have the exact same form factor for every chemistry.

1. Premium - Solid State (what the will license from Quantumscape) won't be ready for 2027.
2. High Capacity - NMC cells - This will be what the 350 mile pack uses.
3. Lower Cost - lower density - LFP - This could be what the Harvester Pack contains.

 

[MountainDad]

Why? Those are the largest cylindrical cells in existence.

That's correct - they're large, but more volume efficient, so for the same overall volume, they offer more energy storage capacity. So maybe they could offer a slightly longer battery-only range, and thus a longer overall range on the Harvester than a comparably-sized pack made of other types of cells.

Prismatic cells can be packaged efficiently, but they have thermal penalties compared to pouch and cylindrical cells. On the other hand, they can be made to be individually replaceable, so that consideration to me would outweigh higher power density.

Would love it if there was an American provider of high-energy-density cells.

MOAR RANGE PLZ. Or at least a longer vehicle useful life....

 

[CarTechGeek]

That's correct - they're large, but more volume efficient, so for the same overall volume, they offer more energy storage capacity. So maybe they could offer a slightly longer battery-only range, and thus a longer overall range on the Harvester than a comparably-sized pack made of other types of cells.

Prismatic cells can be packaged efficiently, but they have thermal penalties compared to pouch and cylindrical cells. On the other hand, they can be made to be individually replaceable, so that consideration to me would outweigh higher power density.

Would love it if there was an American provider of high-energy-density cells.

MOAR RANGE PLZ. Or at least a longer vehicle useful life....

The point is VW/PowerCo is committed to prismatic, not Cylindrical. I would expect Scout to use PowerCo Prismatic Unified Cell batteries.

 

[J Alynn]

The point is VW/PowerCo is committed to prismatic, not Cylindrical. I would expect Scout to use PowerCo Prismatic Unified Cell batteries.

I would guess that’s a very solid assumption!!!

 

[TimmyHil08]

The point is VW/PowerCo is committed to prismatic, not Cylindrical. I would expect Scout to use PowerCo Prismatic Unified Cell batteries.

Those batteries look to be better in all areas of performance. And they manage to keep them looking sleek. But what i see coming from the automotive service industry is that they look easily repairable. So possibly a lesser cost for batter replacements.