Battery Life Cycle

[Mousehunter]

I guess a lot depends on how you define the lifespan of a vehicle. I own more than too many vehicles at the moment (adult children, etc...), and have 2 that are currently dependable enough to reasonably be used as daily drivers that are around 350k miles - and 3 others that are 20ish years old or older. With the exception of my toy Jeep (in honesty, it is something of a maintenance nightmare), none of my current vehicles have had any real mechanical issues other than normal wear and tear. It's not like you need to ditch a vehicle because it needs a brake job every 1/4 million miles, or maybe needs to have tie rod ball joints replace at 350k miles. For the large part, there are not that many EV's that are old enough to have mileage like this - but flip side, there are not all that many that people are reporting have mileage like that either. Companies are bragging that they should have 80% battery life at 100k miles. Hell, that is barely broken in.

We are at a point, most modern vehicles true life is till totalled in a wreck. I am going to be 60 before I probably take delivery of a Scout - and I have only technically totalled one vehicle (and the insurance rebuilt it anyway-because they messed up on calculating the severity of the accident, already investing too much into the initial repair to not finish the repair). Honestly, the life of the Scout to me should probably be mostly limited to how old I will still be driving.

 

[pleasant tree]

Solid state batteries are not the holy grail that the hype is making them out to be and they have yet to be proven in industry and outside of a lab. I don't expect to see solid state batteries in Scout EVs for at least the next decade or more and Scout has basically said that LFP and NCM (ie conventional lithium-ion chemistries) will be in these vehicles so whatever.

As for lifespan, EV batteries have been demonstrated and proven to more than outlast the vehicles they're put in so there should be no expectation to have to "replace" the battery at the owners expense during its lifetime.

Companies like Redwood Materials and Licycle already recycle EV traction batteries and are already seeing yields of over 95% so in a few decades when your shiny EV Scout is finally ready to be retired the battery in it will be recycled into a new battery for a new future EV. The limiting factor for EV battery recycling right now is the lack of feedstock since pretty much all the batteries ever produced for EVs are still in those vehicles today.

Within this year, two OEMs will announce launch vehicles with solid-state batteries (SSB) to be produced in 2026, 4 years before the next decade. One will be a Mercedes the other some type of Volkswagen or Volkswagen affiliate. These will both demonstrate that SSB can be produced in high enough volume for Gigawatt scale. 2027 will have many more entrants. There are huge differences between lithium ion and SSB, not the least of which is cycling ability. Lithium-ion at its best will last 250,000 miles before degrading to below 80% while SSB has been shown to cycle double that amount. If the life of a car is only 250,000 miles, then you are correct that lithium-ion will last the life of a car. Other differences are safety- SSB is significantly less likely to catch fire, Charging times for SSB below 15 minutes, SSB behaves significantly differently from lithium-ion in cold weather conditions.

 

[J Alynn]

Within this year, two OEMs will announce launch vehicles with solid-state batteries (SSB) to be produced in 2026, 4 years before the next decade. One will be a Mercedes the other some type of Volkswagen or Volkswagen affiliate. These will both demonstrate that SSB can be produced in high enough volume for Gigawatt scale. 2027 will have many more entrants. There are huge differences between lithium ion and SSB, not the least of which is cycling ability. Lithium-ion at its best will last 250,000 miles before degrading to below 80% while SSB has been shown to cycle double that amount. If the life of a car is only 250,000 miles, then you are correct that lithium-ion will last the life of a car. Other differences are safety- SSB is significantly less likely to catch fire, Charging times for SSB below 15 minutes, SSB behaves significantly differently from lithium-ion in cold weather conditions.

Mercedes can afford to absorb early entry problems in that field since they are a luxury brand. As essentially a start up company SM can’t afford to take a hit if/when problems arise. It’s in their best interest to launch with known elements and products then consider the higher end upgrade at the mid cycle refresh. Launching the Scouts at a cost over $80K is gonna cost a lot of people the ability to afford a Scout.
As an optional upgrade it may be possible but as a new company that’s a high risk for right out of the gate

 

[dreamweaver]

Mercedes can afford to absorb early entry problems in that field since they are a luxury brand. As essentially a start up company SM can’t afford to take a hit if/when problems arise. It’s in their best interest to launch with known elements and products then consider the higher end upgrade at the mid cycle refresh. Launching the Scouts at a cost over $80K is gonna cost a lot of people the ability to afford a Scout.
As an optional upgrade it may be possible but as a new company that’s a high risk for right out of the gate

I say we should be cautiously optimistic we might just be pleasantly surprised!

 

[pleasant tree]

Mercedes can afford to absorb early entry problems in that field since they are a luxury brand. As essentially a start up company SM can’t afford to take a hit if/when problems arise. It’s in their best interest to launch with known elements and products then consider the higher end upgrade at the mid cycle refresh. Launching the Scouts at a cost over $80K is gonna cost a lot of people the ability to afford a Scout.
As an optional upgrade it may be possible but as a new company that’s a high risk for right out of the gate

I agree with you, I would not buy a Scout for anywhere near that. The premium I would expect for the SSB battery would be in the$5k to 10K range, dropping down to actually less money than Lithium-ion after the first few years. These batteries will be less expensive to produce.

 

[J Alynn]

I agree with you, I would not buy a Scout for anywhere near that. The premium I would expect for the SSB battery would be in the$5k to 10K range, dropping down to actually less money than Lithium-ion after the first few years. These batteries will be less expensive to produce.

I agree but the SSB bring nearly double the miles so at the beginning there will be a large premium for SSB to 1)-recoupe research/design/engineering as well as manuf start up costs and 2)-it’s more mileage so therefore it’s an upgradable option.
It’s unfortunate but it is proper business strategy.
Look at the new VW ID buzz-like what 250 mile range and dealers are asking/getting $20-$30K over MSRP simply for new. Now we consider SSB which actually provides a huge benefit and value so it makes that it will be an upgrade. At a typical mark up of 50% (or more) buyers will easily be looking at $10K minimum for the first few years if not more so manufacturers can also cover the risk of it still being new technology