Comparing preorders to Bronco sales

[friscoscout]

I was curious with the announcement of 50K preorders earlier this month before the huge marketing push in the last few weeks. I assume they will likely have 250k on preorder before release with a conversion of perhaps 75% to actual taking delivery (188k).

In 24, Ford sold 109k Broncos and 105k in 23.

I’m curious with the single plant how long it will take to work through the preorder backlog. I know Ford is building about 750 per day. For us on early order that would mean a 2 month build time. It will be interesting to see how this brand new plant will handle the logistics with new suppliers.

 

[friscoscout]

Another comparison point was Rivians 50k sales in 2023.

 

[THil08]

Yep i seen a good amount of Scout commercials on college sports and golf. Hope we’re getting more commercials in other sports soon.

 

[J Alynn]

I was curious with the announcement of 50K preorders earlier this month before the huge marketing push in the last few weeks. I assume they will likely have 250k on preorder before release with a conversion of perhaps 75% to actual taking delivery (188k).

In 24, Ford sold 109k Broncos and 105k in 23.

I’m curious with the single plant how long it will take to work through the preorder backlog. I know Ford is building about 750 per day. For us on early order that would mean a 2 month build time. It will be interesting to see how this brand new plant will handle the logistics with new suppliers.

I believe SM info notes the plant can handle 200K vehicles a year. That means a little more than 16,500 vehicles per month. Assuming a bit slower start, I’d think an average of 12-15K vehicles a month for first couple months then upward of the 16,500. Based on a 5 day work week-20-ish days per month that’s approx 800 vehicles per day.

 

[Chuckles]

I believe SM info notes the plant can handle 200K vehicles a year. That means a little more than 16,500 vehicles per month. Assuming a bit slower start, I’d think an average of 12-15K vehicles a month for first couple months then upward of the 16,500. Based on a 5 day work week-20-ish days per month that’s approx 800 vehicles per day.

40 per hour is the number Scout quotes in their production center updates.

 

[THil08]

40 per hour is the number Scout quotes in their production center updates.

Around 1.5 minutes to build one Scout. I hope quality control is fantastic with the fact that they are being built so fast.

 

[Logan]

There has been a a new Marketing campaign?

I haven’t seen a single bit of marketing materials from scout.

Then again, I don’t watch sports, or TV, and use ad-blockers. So I guess that puts me off the radar.

But like others, id guess production will start out relatively slow, and take a couple months to a year to get all the way up to speed.

 

[THil08]

There has been a a new Marketing campaign?

I haven’t seen a single bit of marketing materials from scout.

Then again, I don’t watch sports, or TV, and use ad-blockers. So I guess that puts me off the radar.

But like others, id guess production will start out relatively slow, and take a couple months to a year to get all the way up to speed.

My guess is the closer we get to production and build orders going in with down payments. We will start to see marketing picking up since Scout will start to get a return from it.

 

[oldgeeksguide]

There has been a a new Marketing campaign?

I haven’t seen a single bit of marketing materials from scout.

Then again, I don’t watch sports, or TV, and use ad-blockers. So I guess that puts me off the radar.

But like others, id guess production will start out relatively slow, and take a couple months to a year to get all the way up to speed.

>I don’t watch sports, or TV, and use ad-blockers

Well, yeah, that might have something to do with it
I’ve seen a lot of scout ads in my insta feed.

 

[THil08]

>I don’t watch sports, or TV, and use ad-blockers

Well, yeah, that might have something to do with it
I’ve seen a lot of scout ads in my insta feed.

Ive seen a few on YouTube videos.

 

[Mousehunter]

Honestly, hard to market hard before there is a pre-production vehicle rather than a production intent. The real push will be after they have the models more tied down and they have a small fleet of vehicles that are closer to production versions. I honestly wonder if the first couple months of production should just go to short term rental fleets - so buyers with deposits can rent for a couple days before they make non-refundable deposits.

 

[friscoscout]

There’s a lot of talk on X about if they see the Scout commercial one more time on YouTubeTV, they will end it all. So yes, the ad push has been somewhat pervasive.

 

[eddiet1212]

I was curious with the announcement of 50K preorders earlier this month before the huge marketing push in the last few weeks. I assume they will likely have 250k on preorder before release with a conversion of perhaps 75% to actual taking delivery (188k).

In 24, Ford sold 109k Broncos and 105k in 23.

I’m curious with the single plant how long it will take to work through the preorder backlog. I know Ford is building about 750 per day. For us on early order that would mean a 2 month build time. It will be interesting to see how this brand new plant will handle the logistics with new suppliers.

Difficult to compare.

Ford supply issues resulted in delays for Bronco 4-door with the MIC top option...

 

[R1TVT]

I would agree with those that think less is more at this stage when it comes to marketing for Scout. I also do not think Scout should market the way the other OEM's do, and see no reason for TV ads. They are expensive and annoying, and there are much better ways to specifically target the potential audience for Scout. I also think following the other "tired" OEM's weakens and cheapens the Scout brand. Intentional obscurity at this stage is far more valuable IMHO. Way better to slowly leak bits and pieces through demonstrated capability. Going direct to consumer also requires a somewhat non-traditional approach to building confidence.

That said, I do think the 1 commercial I have seen (Father / Daughter - Old Scout/New Scout) was very well done, and speaks for itself. I would leave that out in the ether, and let it be the catalyst to draw people in and ask questions. Closer to launch, Scout could do a re-take of some sort on that singular commercial.

 

[DaveGunter]

preorders with a refundable $100 deposit doesn't mean anything

 

[J Alynn]

preorders with a refundable $100 deposit doesn't mean anything

It does and it doesn’t. It’s a gauge of interest more than anything and it’s a talking point for someone who finds it and word of mouths it to two or theee other friends. I know of three people who paid the $100 and signed up because a friend of their’s was a friend of mine and they know my excitement about the vehicles and shared it with the others. I’ve also mentioned it to an acquaintance in the building industry that’s just starting to look at going EV for their fleet vehicles.
This is early stage/grass roots efforts so while a refundable deposit may not indicate sales it allows SM to gauge potential sales orders based on some statistics formula they are likely working from.
My bigger question is how many of us reserved 2 vehicles with likely intent of only purchasing 1 and are the double reservations factored in to SM’s conversion equations? I reserved two only because my dad has been talking about a new car but wants to wait a year or two. My parent’s Scout became my first car so I think it would be cool if my dad and I both bought one so that’s why I reserved two.

 

[THil08]

It does and it doesn’t. It’s a gauge of interest more than anything and it’s a talking point for someone who finds it and word of mouths it to two or theee other friends. I know of three people who paid the $100 and signed up because a friend of their’s was a friend of mine and they know my excitement about the vehicles and shared it with the others. I’ve also mentioned it to an acquaintance in the building industry that’s just starting to look at going EV for their fleet vehicles.
This is early stage/grass roots efforts so while a refundable deposit may not indicate sales it allows SM to gauge potential sales orders based on some statistics formula they are likely working from.
My bigger question is how many of us reserved 2 vehicles with likely intent of only purchasing 1 and are the double reservations factored in to SM’s conversion equations? I reserved two only because my dad has been talking about a new car but wants to wait a year or two. My parent’s Scout became my first car so I think it would be cool if my dad and I both bought one so that’s why I reserved two.

Free Advertising is the Best Advertising for anything.

and I second your question about the equations Scout uses for the reservation count. My guess is that they are going by the Account's that placed the reservation and not how many are linked to the Account. but I could be wrong.

 

[Derek]

It does and it doesn’t. It’s a gauge of interest more than anything and it’s a talking point for someone who finds it and word of mouths it to two or theee other friends. I know of three people who paid the $100 and signed up because a friend of their’s was a friend of mine and they know my excitement about the vehicles and shared it with the others. I’ve also mentioned it to an acquaintance in the building industry that’s just starting to look at going EV for their fleet vehicles.
This is early stage/grass roots efforts so while a refundable deposit may not indicate sales it allows SM to gauge potential sales orders based on some statistics formula they are likely working from.
My bigger question is how many of us reserved 2 vehicles with likely intent of only purchasing 1 and are the double reservations factored in to SM’s conversion equations? I reserved two only because my dad has been talking about a new car but wants to wait a year or two. My parent’s Scout became my first car so I think it would be cool if my dad and I both bought one so that’s why I reserved two.

I've only reserved one (on the first day), but in talking to my wife, there is a chance she'd need one too as the family hauler (our 2015 SUV will be 12/13 years old by then), so I may just go reserve a second one now with a HARD intention of buying the first and 50/50 chance of taking the second one.

 

[Jrgunn5150]

What they theoretically can do vs what they will do are two different things.

There's also a point of diminishing returns, where the ability to build a garrilion vehicles a second, costs way more than the ability to build 100 per day, and if people aren't buying, there's no point.

I think, realistically, 2028 production of 100 per day is ambitious.

The preorderer's will wait as long as they need to, and there's no point in having so much overhead capability you have to amortize back in per unit (see scare articles about Rivian "losing" 30k per unit), that you don't get it back before the model is obsoleted.

 

[J Alynn]

What they theoretically can do vs what they will do are two different things.

There's also a point of diminishing returns, where the ability to build a garrilion vehicles a second, costs way more than the ability to build 100 per day, and if people aren't buying, there's no point.

I think, realistically, 2028 production of 100 per day is ambitious.

The preorderer's will wait as long as they need to, and there's no point in having so much overhead capability you have to amortize back in per unit (see scare articles about Rivian "losing" 30k per unit), that you don't get it back before the model is obsoleted.

The negative to that approach is what Ford did with the Broncos. Be it roof quality issues and other problems they still delivered poorly to customers and in return lost a lot of buyers. To date SM has been more transparent than the majority of other manufacturers. I think closer to production time they should publicly announce their production intentions for year one. If the public side knows there are 90,000 vehicles and they commit to X amount monthly people can set expectations. Hey I reserved day one with 5000 others so I should be in first batch of 7500 vehicles. This means 2 to 2-1/2 months - now I have a reasonable expectation to gauge things on.
I’ll go so far as to say they should indicate commodity restrictions. Hey-right now we have 300 winches with more coming each month. If you want a winch plan on a 4 month turn around. Best SM can do is be transparent and set reasonable expectations that they know internally they can exceed. Then everyone walks away feeling a little bit better